Despite early uncertainty in the year, key economic indicators are trending upward, with strong GDP growth, steady freight volumes, and modest improvements in manufacturing output. At the same time, consumer confidence and labor market fluctuations are tempering optimism, reminding shippers and manufacturers alike that agility remains essential.
From tightening van capacity and rising freight expenditures to a slow rebound in tonnage, Q3 delivered a mix of stability and strategic challenges for supply chains across the U.S. In this report, we break down the latest data shaping the industry and what it could mean for your operations in the months ahead.
Catch up on the Q2 2025 Data
How was the summer logistics season? Find out by reading our Q2 2025 Logistics Industry Report.
GDP Growth Holds Strong
While 2025 had a rocky start for GDP growth—increasing only 0.5% in Q1—real GDP in Q2 skyrocketed to 3.8%. The Atlanta Federal Reserve is predicting this growth to hold strong in Q3, increasing again by 3.8%, according to the latest estimates.
Note: as of the writing of this report, the current government shutdown is delaying data and casting uncertainty into the real GDP growth numbers. Still, experts are predicting stable and strong growth going into the latter half of 2025.
Consumer Confidence Wanes, But Manufacturers are Hopeful
US Consumer Confidence declined again in September, dropping 3.6 points to 94.2 as consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions continue to reside on shaky ground. This is consistent with a decline in jobs and overall pessimism in consumer sentiment over the past few months. References to prices and inflation concerns were also displayed in the data, showing that consumers are concerned about their spending power despite a growing economy.
Although the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) jobs report for the month of September is delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown, experts are predicting that the US economy will lose 32,000 private sector jobs this month. These numbers will be verified when the full report is released.
While consumer confidence has dropped, US manufacturers are taking a more positive outlook on the future of the economy. Manufacturers are projecting moderate growth over the next 12 months with production expected to rise 2.5%, according to the latest reports. Costs are still expected to increase, but those increases are slowing. The Federal Reserve is reporting that output is increasing, slightly, continuing a recovery from the shrinking output we saw in April.
Van Capacity Continues to Tighten
Van capacity continued to tighten in Q3 as more loads were posted per available trucks. This decrease in capacity began in April, where the Van to Truckload Ratio was 4.48 loads per truck. After a sharp increase in May, capacity continued to decrease with the ratio increasing to 6.53 loads per truck by September, the highest level since February of 2025. If trends continue from prior years, capacity will continue to tighten into the holiday season as online shopping increases.
National Spot and Contract Rates at the end of September were:
- Van: $2.08 (Spot) and $2.41 (Contract)
- Flatbed: $2.53 (Spot) and $3.09 (Contract)
- Reefer: $2.49Â (Spot) and $2.80Â (Contract)Â
Freight Shipments Steadily Increase
Although down from prior years, freight shipments have been on a steady incline over the last few months. According to the Cass Shipments Index®, freight shipments increased 2.5% m/m in September wiping out the decrease experienced in August. The data show that truckload volumes are up, but LTL volumes are on the decline. This reflects the ongoing TL capacity, where lower rates are leading to consolidated loads, as well as tariff reliefs that have impacted the prices of imported goods.
Freight expenditures were also up in September, increasing 5.1% after a very slight decline of 0.4% in August. Expenditures are still on the rise from prior years, but they have remained relatively flat when compared to trendlines from 2022 onward.
Tonnage Finally Begins to Rebound
The American Trucking Associations’ Tonnage Index has a rare two-month increase in July and August, bumping up 1.1% in July and 0.9% in August. This is a rare two-month increase in the index, which has either remained flat or declined since March. Tonnage remains soft in the industry, but freight volumes had a very strong performance at the end of the summer season. While it’s difficult to predict strong levels throughout the holidays, trendlines from prior years show this to be the case. However, tariffs, soft housing markets, and slowing labor markets are all forces working against an increase in freight.
No Significant Changes in Diesel Fuel Prices
Diesel fuel prices had an unremarkable Q3, holding steady after increasing towards the end of June. Prices peaked at $3.812 in late July, their highest level since May, before dropping again and holding steady throughout September.
As of the writing of this report, diesel fuel prices have increased further to $3.665.
Start Planning for 2026
Is your supply chain ready to help you meet your goals for next year? Now is the time to begin planning and creating a strategy that can help you store and move your freight more efficiently. At King Solutions, we can help you stay ahead of the trends and alter your strategy to meet any challenge. Let’s talk about what is possible. Get in touch with us today to talk about the solutions your business needs most.
